COVID-19 Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails   [open pdf - 0B]

From the Abstract: "Uncertainty about own-firm sales growth rates over the year ahead roughly doubled in reaction to the COVID [coronavirus disease] shock, according to our surveys of U.S. and U.K. business executives. Firm-level uncertainty receded after spring 2020 but remains much higher than pre-COVID levels. Moreover, the 'nature' of firm-level uncertainty has shifted greatly since the pandemic struck: Initially, business executives perceived an enormous increase in downside uncertainty, which has now dissipated. As of October 2021, almost all of the extra firm-level uncertainty is to the upside. In short, economic uncertainty associated with the pandemic has morphed from a tale of the lower tail into a tale about the upper tail."