Vaccine and Testing Mandate's Effect on the Labor Market   [open pdf - 0B]

From the Introduction: "On Thursday November 4, the Biden Administration announced details of a new COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] vaccination requirement issued through the Department of Labor's Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA). The OSHA rule requires employers with 100 or more employees to ensure their workers are fully vaccinated by January 4, 2022, or receive weekly COVID-19 tests thereafter. The rule would also mandate that employers give workers paid time off to get vaccinated. Over 84 million employees are covered under this rule. Vaccine mandates have been a contentious policy option, and 16 percent [hyperlink] of adults have said they will not be getting a vaccine. Further, an estimated 10-16 million employed adults (or up to 6.1 percent of the civilian noninstitutionalized population) have said they would leave their jobs if subject to a vaccine mandate (or weekly testing). A logical outcome of a sustained mandate would be that vaccine-hesitant workers move into small businesses (fewer than 100 employees) to avoid the requirements of the OSHA rule, or perhaps leave the workforce for some time. This analysis finds that 10-16 million workers are at risk for employment change because of the OSHA mandate. Thus, there is potential for large disruptive labor market impacts over the next several months that will also complicate the interpretation of labor market indicators."

American Action Forum
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