How Effective Are Social Distancing Policies? Evidence on the Fight Against COVID-19 [open pdf - 1MB]
From the Abstract: "To fight the spread of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019], many countries implemented social distancing policies. This is the first paper that examines the effects of the German social distancing policies on behavior and the epidemic's spread. Exploiting the staggered timing of COVID-19 outbreaks in extended event-study models, we find that the policies heavily reduced mobility and contagion. In comparison to a no-social-distancing benchmark, within three weeks, the policies avoided 84% of the potential COVID-19 cases (point estimate: 499.3K) and 66% of the potential fatalities (5.4K). The policies' relative effects were smaller for individuals above 60 and in rural areas."
2021 Glogowsky et al. Posted here with permission. Document is under a Creative Commons license and requires proper attribution and noncommercial use to be shared: [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/]
PLOS Journals: https://journals.plos.org/