China Rising Leaders Project, Part 1: The Chinese Communist Party and Its Emerging Next-Generation Leaders   [open pdf - 2MB]

From the Series Introduction: "A sea change is quietly underway in Chinese politics. The 18th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), expected to convene in autumn 2012, will mark only the second transition of power since the death of paramount leader Deng Xiaoping - and it will be the first one not set in place by Deng's own unrivalled authority. The 2012 transition to a 'Fifth Generation' of Party leadership will test both the procedures for orderly succession established by the CCP over the past two decades, as well as the ability of the Party's senior ranks to overcome factional divides and coalesce under a new collective leadership. In exchanges kept behind closed doors and out of the public eye, jockeying and negotiations among institutional interests; factional and patronage networks; contending ideologies; and powerful personalities are shaping up the leadership ranks for the rising generation of leaders that will guide China's course well into the 2020s. [...] This series of papers will seek to identify the rising figures in the CCP bureaucracy, the military, and the state-owned economy who appear to be on track to assume positions of increased authority after the 18th CCP Party Congress and in the years to follow. It will also examine the social, political, and economic trends involved in the Party's selection of cadres for higher leadership posts, and analyze the likely policy implications for the United States."

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