From the Executive Summary: "Climate change is expected to adversely affect public health through multiple pathways. Assessing the projected health burden is an important step for public health agencies to prepare for these impacts. This can be done qualitatively or quantitatively, but quantitative projections may provide more useful information about likely impacts. Many health departments are not particularly familiar with scenario-based, quantitative disease projections. To facilitate this process, the Climate and Health Program (CHP) [hyperlink] at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [hyperlink] developed the Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) [hyperlink] framework. As part of BRACE, health agencies are encouraged to produce estimates of the future burden of disease for climate-related health outcomes. These estimates can then be used to rank the health outcomes, prioritize preventive actions, and design health adaptation plans. This guide presents a starting point for health departments interested in developing climate change health impact projections and lays out a general map of the process of establishing exposure-response relationships and developing scenario-based projections. The specifics of the process used to project future disease burden will vary greatly depending on local climate impacts, underlying vulnerabilities, the disease of interest, and other factors. While there is no 'gold standard' for projecting the health impacts of climate change, our goal is to provide a digestible but thorough overview that will orient those interested in projecting climate change disease burden to facilitate public health preparedness for the challenges ahead."
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: https://www.cdc.gov/