ABSTRACT

Pandemic Prospects and the Global Economic Recovery   [open pdf - 1MB]

From the Abstract: "This paper develops an empirical model of the economic impact of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] and uses it to gauge how the evolution of the pandemic will affect the global economic recovery. We start with country-specific projections for pandemic deaths constructed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). These projections, along with corresponding projections for the stringency of pandemic lockdown restrictions, are plugged into an empirical multi-country regression model, relating GDP [gross domestic product] to COVID-19 deaths and lockdown regulations. Based on the projections of this model, we find that under the IHME's baseline scenario, progress toward reducing pandemic deaths and lockdown restrictions should add 1.4 percentage points to global growth (four-quarter basis) in 2021."

Report Number:
AEI Economics Working Paper 2021-09; American Enterprise Institute Economics Working Paper 2021-09
Author:
Publisher:
Date:
2021-06
Series:
Copyright:
2021 Steven B. Kamin and John Kearns. Posted here with permission. Documents are for personal use only and not for commercial profit.
Retrieved From:
American Enterprise Institute: https://www.aei.org/
Format:
pdf
Media Type:
application/pdf
URL:
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