Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios: Background, Issues, and Policy Relevance [June 3, 2021] [open pdf - 2MB]
From the Summary: "Projecting future climate change, and what drives it, is difficult, with many uncertainties. Computer models, however, can be useful tools for exploring the long-term implications of climate change and evaluating policy options. For example, models can help construct plausible scenarios of future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions based on socioeconomic, environmental, and technological trends and drivers. Integrated assessment models (IAMs), coupled models of the economy, energy, land use, and climate systems, are used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the main international scientific body for assessing global climate change. This report explores the results of a selected set of IAM scenarios consistent with keeping the increase in global mean surface temperature to 1.5°C or 2°C above preindustrial levels in 2100, the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement."
CRS Report for Congress, R46807
Congressional Research Service: https://crsreports.congress.gov/