Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution and Infrastructure Development for the United States [open pdf - 11MB]
From the Executive Summary: "Electrification, the shift from non-electric to electric sources of energy at the point of final consumption, is an emerging trend that could have major implications for global energy systems. The Electrification Futures Study (EFS) is a multiyear collaborative study designed to assess the potential impacts that could arise if widespread electrification occurs in the United States. The EFS is particularly attentive to the ways in which electrification could affect different parts of the energy system, including demand sectors (buildings, industrial, and transportation) and energy supply systems. Due to the complex nature of these interactions, results from the EFS are presented through a series of reports focused on specific topics. This report, the fifth in the series, presents an analysis of the potential impacts of widespread electrification on the evolution of the U.S. electricity system. In particular, we examine how electrification could drive changes in generation and transmission infrastructure investments, fuel use, system costs, and air emissions. We apply a scenario analysis approach that covers a wide range of potential futures based on variations across several dimensions, the most prominent of which is electrification level. Scenarios with the lowest amount of electrification considered, which we refer to as the Reference electrification level, include modest amounts of adoption for cost-competitive electric end-use technologies only."
National Renewable Energy Laboratory: https://www.nrel.gov/