Forecasting the Frequency and Magnitude of Postfire Debris Flows Across Southern California [open pdf - 4MB]
From the Abstract: "Southern California has a long history of damaging debris flows after wildfire. Despite recurrent loss, forecasts of the frequency and magnitude of postfire debris flows are not available for the region like they are for earthquakes. Instead, debris flow hazards are typically assessed in a reactive manner after wildfires. Such assessments are crucial for evaluating debris flow risk by postfire emergency response teams; however, time between the fire and first rainstorm is often insufficient to fully develop and implement effective emergency response plans like those in place for earthquakes. Here, we use both historical distributions of fire and precipitation frequency and empirical models of postfire debris flow likelihood and volume to map the expected frequency and magnitude of postfire debris flows across southern California."
2021 Advancing Earth and Space Science. Posted here with permission. Document is under a Creative Commons license and requires proper attribution and noncommercial use to be shared: [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/] This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.
Advancing Earth and Space Science: https://www.agu.org/
Earth's Future (March 2021), v.9 issue 3