Toward a Science-Based Management Approach to Stealth Threats: A Case Study Using the Novel Coronavirus [open pdf - 816KB]
From the Abstract: "The modest early stage impact of slow-moving threats makes it easy to underestimate their impact. These threats grow and evolve unnoticed until reaching dramatic impacts in both scope and scale. Since slow-moving threats can grow to catastrophic magnitudes that threaten our very survival, they are more aptly identified as 'stealth threats'. The geographic range of stealth threats combined with their impact across multiple sectors impose potentially existential costs to the Nation. As such, we must re-focus the mission of DHS to identify and combat stealth threats. When dealing with stealth threats, there is no instinctive approach that can relate the facts of today to the consequences of tomorrow. Preparing for, and responding to, stealth threats requires a commitment to validated science-based models that predict the impact of the threat. We illustrate these points, and the role of mathematical modeling in emergency response, using the SIR [Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered] growth model of epidemics applied to Covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019]."
2020 by the author(s). Posted here with permission. Documents are for personal use only and not for commercial profit. See document for full rights information.
Homeland Security Affairs Journal: http://www.hsaj.org/
Homeland Security Affairs (December 2020), v.16, article 12