Baseline Projections of COVID-19 in the EU/EEA and the UK: Update   [open pdf - 0B]

From the Introduction: "In May 2020, ECDC [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control] published baseline projections of the number of confirmed COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] cases and associated hospitalisation and mortality for 30 EU/EEA [European Economic Area] countries and the UK, with a comprehensive description of the dynamic compartmental model developed to produce the forecasts. In Annex 3, the 30-day projections made in May are plotted against the observed epidemiological data from June. This report provides updated 30-day projections, together with the inherent model assumptions and uncertainties. Both the model projections and the data to which the model is calibrated should be interpreted with caution given the differences between national surveillance systems, case definitions and testing policies. Comparisons between countries based on the data and forecasts presented in this paper should only be made with extreme caution and should take these differences into account. Nonetheless, the projections presented here illustrate potential future trends in COVID-19 transmission in EU/EEA countries and the UK."

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
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European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/
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