Updated Projections of COVID-19 in the EU/EEA and the UK   [open pdf - 0B]

From the Introduction: "SARS-CoV-2 [severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2] is the causative agent of the current COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] global pandemic, which began in December 2019. Coronaviruses are transmitted in most instances through large respiratory droplets and direct human-to-human contact, although other modes of transmission (e.g. airborne, faeco-oral and through fomites) have also been suggested. Severe cases require treatment in hospital, while critical cases are treated in intensive care, commonly requiring respiratory support or invasive mechanical ventilation. More information on the latest scientific developments is available from ECDC's [European Union and European Economic Area] regularly updated webpage. By March 2020, all European Union (EU)/European Economic Area (EEA) countries and the United Kingdom (UK) had implemented a range of non-pharmaceutical interventions in response to the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, subsequently reducing their intensity following an observed reduction in the number of hospitalised cases and deaths. By the end of October 2020, a resurgence of cases had been observed throughout Europe and many countries reinstated more stringent interventions as a result. [...] This report provides a further update to those baseline projections and also includes an alternative scenario which illustrates the potential impact on the number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths, if the population returned to the behaviour they practised on 1 April 2020. Furthermore, we illustrate how hospitalisation rates may be affected if the response measures implemented in October and November 2020 are lifted before the Christmas period."

2020 European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
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European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/
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