State of the Nation: A 50-State Covid-19 Survey Report #16: Partisan Differences in Intention to Vote by Mail [open pdf - 0B]
From the Document: "The COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic has led many election administrators, as well as voters, to reconsider the manner in which votes will be cast during the 2020 general election. With many voters wary of waiting in line in person beside strangers on Election Day, registrars around the country are preparing for a far higher share of ballots to be cast by mail than ever before. The best available academic research suggests that holding elections entirely by mail slightly increases turnout, but does not advantage either major political party. [...] Here we evaluate three questions:  'How many people report that they will vote by mail in each state?'  'What will be the difference in candidate choice between those who vote on the day of the election versus those who vote by mail?' [and 3] 'What is the potential shift in the margin between Trump and Biden from the day of voting to a count that incorporates votes received by mail?' To evaluate these questions, we use the most recent two waves of our 50-state survey, which included a question asking 37,659 respondents (26,838 among them likely voters) how likely they were to vote by absentee or mail-in ballot."
Report No.16, v.2
Northeastern University; Harvard Medical School; Rutgers University; Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics, and Public Policy; Northwestern University
The State of the Nation, A 50-State COVID-19 Survey: https://covidstates.org/