From the Thesis Abstract: "ISIL [Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant]'s declaration of an Islamic Caliphate in June 2014 sent shockwaves through the international environment. A following trans-national terror campaign under ISIL's black flag resulted in several countermeasures against the new geopolitical threat that have reduced the terror organization geographical control over its previous conquered terrain, and has forced ISIL to transition to an insurgency organization. The thesis addresses ISIL's transition to the insurgency, and examine how the terror organization's strategy and current state may pose a threat to NATO within the next five years. First, the paper explains fundamental theories of terrorism and ISIL's history, before analyzing ISIL's strategy and ISIL's capabilities to impose its strategy. Second, NATO's critical vulnerabilities are discussed through a Center of Gravity analysis. In the final phase, the thesis answers the research question by discussing if ISIL has the intention (strategy) and capability to exploit any of NATO's critical vulnerabilities."
Ike Skelton Combined Arms Research Library Digital Library: https://cgsc.contentdm.oclc.org/