COVID-19 Vaccine Predictions: Using Mathematical Modelling and Expert Opinions to Estimate Timelines and Probabilities of Success of COVID-19 Vaccines [open pdf - 2MB]
From the Abstract: "We collected publicly available information, interviewed experts, and used our diverse range of expertise to analyse and model the COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] vaccine portfolio. There is significant uncertainty surrounding the development, approval and manufacturing of COVID-19 vaccines. We find that the chances of developing a safe and efficacious vaccine are high but it will not occur in the immediate future, and it is unlikely to be the silver bullet that resolves the pandemic and returns our world to normal. Using inputs generated from expert interviews, our modelling suggests that there is a 50 percent chance that by the end of April 2021 there will be a vaccine safe and efficacious enough to win approval from a stringent regulator; by the end of 2021, this rises to 85 percent. Inputs more optimistic or pessimistic than those we gained through expert interviews lead to very different results."
CGD Policy Paper 183; Center for Global Development Policy Paper 183
Center for Global Development. Document is under a Creative Commons license and requires proper attribution and noncommercial use to be shared: [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/]
Center for Global Development: https://www.cgdev.org/