ABSTRACT

Economic Consequences of R = 1: Towards a Workable Behavioural Epidemiological Model of Pandemics   [open pdf - 552KB]

From the Abstract: "This paper reviews the literature on incorporating behavioural elements into epidemiological models of pandemics. While modelling behaviour by forward-looking rational agents can provide some insight into the time paths of pandemics, the non-stationary nature of Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) models of viral spread makes characterisation of resulting equilibria difficult. Here I posit a shortcut that can be deployed to allow for a tractable equilibrium model of pandemics with intuitive comparative statics and also a clear prediction that effective reproduction numbers (that is, R) will tend towards 1 in equilibrium. This motivates taking R =1 as an equilibrium starting point for analyses of pandemics with behavioural agents. The implications of this for the analysis of widespread testing, tracing, isolation and mask-use is discussed."

Report Number:
NBER Working Paper No. 27590; National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 27590
Author:
Publisher:
Date:
2020-07
Series:
Copyright:
2020 Joshua S. Gans. Posted here with permission. Documents are for personal use only and not for commercial profit.
Retrieved From:
National Bureau of Economic Research: https://www.nber.org/
Format:
pdf
Media Type:
application/pdf
URL:
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