From the Abstract: "Standard operating procedures (SOPs) guide emergency responders in a crisis, providing predetermined steps to manage anticipated events. Modern disasters, however, often manifest as complex systems--susceptible to nonlinear interactions and feedback in the environment that produce unanticipated outcomes. As a consequence, the application of prediction-dependent SOPs to prediction-defiant scenarios yields ineffective emergency management, meanwhile case studies demonstrate that adaptation and innovative behavior often succeeds in the complex environment. If adaptability mitigates complex problems, then modern crisis SOPs must embrace an adaptive approach. This article explores the 'Disaster Dilemma' of applying predictive SOPs to unpredictable, complex disasters, to include a case study of a modern mega-crisis that argues for integrating critical thinking and adaptability into crisis response."
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Homeland Security Affairs Journal: http://www.hsaj.org/
Homeland Security Affairs (August 2020), v.16, article 5