Real-Time Real Economic Activity: Exiting the Great Recession and Entering the Pandemic Recession   [open pdf - 5MB]

From the Abstract: "We study the real-time signals provided by the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Index of Business conditions (ADS) for tracking economic activity at high frequency. We start with exit from the Great Recession, comparing the evolution of real-time vintage beliefs to a 'final' late-vintage chronology. We then consider entry into the Pandemic Recession, again tracking the evolution of real-time vintage beliefs. ADS swings widely as its underlying economic indicators swing widely, but the emerging ADS path as of this writing (late June) indicates a return to growth in May. The trajectory of the nascent recovery, however, is highly uncertain (particularly as COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] spreads in the South and West) and could be revised or eliminated as new data arrive."