From the Document: "The COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic has upended the U.S. labor market, with massive job losses and a spike in unemployment to its highest level since the Great Depression. How long unemployment will remain at crisis levels is highly uncertain and will depend on the speed and success of coronavirus containment measures. Historical patterns of monthly flows in and out of unemployment, adjusted for unique aspects of the coronavirus economy, can help in assessing potential paths of unemployment. Unless hiring rises to unprecedented levels, unemployment could remain severely elevated well into next year."
FRBSF Economic Letter 2020-12; Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2020-12
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco: https://www.frbsf.org/