Framework for Assessing Models of the COVID-19 Pandemic to Inform Policymaking in Virginia   [open html - 0B]

From the Summary: "As the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has evolved, we have relied on models to predict the severity of the pandemic, when the pandemic might peak, and what might be done to avoid the worst-case scenario. Modelers have been rushing to respond, but not all models are suitable to inform policy. To make informed decisions, policymakers should have some notion of the variety of models available, the suitability of the model types, and areas of uncertainty for the models. This report describes a framework for assessing the suitability of models for addressing policy-relevant questions and applies the framework to the COVID-19 pandemic in Virginia. This report builds on Gambhir et al., 2015, and Manheim et al., 2016, to develop a specific analytic framework for assessing the suitability of models for use in the COVID-19 pandemic in the state of Virginia. Although those studies considered generic infectious diseases, we are focused on COVID-19. We focus on two phases of the pandemic: the early stage and the late stage."

2020 RAND Corporation
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