Reopening Scenarios   [open pdf - 0B]

From the Abstract: "We use a five-age epidemiological model, combined with 66-sector economic accounting, to address a variety of questions concerning the economic reopening. We calibrate/estimate the model using contact survey data and data on weekly historical individual actions and nonpharmaceutical interventions in the weeks ending March 8 - May 16, 2020. Going forward, we model a decision-maker (governor) as following reopening guidelines like those proposed by the White House and the CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The sectoral accounting, combined with information on personal proximity and ability to work from home by sector, make it possible to construct a GDP [gross domestic product]-to-Risk index of which sectors provide the greatest increment in GDP per marginal increase in R0. Through simulations, we find that: a strong economic reopening is possible; a 'smart' reopening, preferencing some sectors over others, makes only modest improvements over a broad reopening; and all this hinges on retaining strong restrictions on non-work social contacts. If non-work contacts - going to bars, shopping without social distancing and masks, large group gatherings, etc. - return only half-way to the pre-COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] baseline, the current decline in deaths reverses leading to a second wave of business closures."