From the Document: "The Department of Defense (DOD) needs to re-institutionalize horizon scanning for 'strategic shock' and integrate this perspective into its strategy, plans, and risk assessment. Defense-relevant 'strategic shocks' are disruptive, transformational events for DOD. Though their precise origin and nature are uncertain, strategic shocks often emerge from clear trends. Shocks are often recognized in advance on some level but are nonetheless 'shocking' because they are largely ignored. Too often, rapid strategic shock catches the DOD off guard because leadership fails to account for it. [...] DOD is an inherently conservative institution. Change is a hard sell--especially change perceived to be inspired by speculation. Failure to learn from the current COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] experience will again engender real consequences such as institutional turbulence, increased risk to strategic interests and objectives, and fits of ad hoc adaptation. These are poor outcomes for an institution already struggling to adapt to a hypercompetitive security landscape."
Strategic Studies Institute: https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/