What Does and Does Not Correlate with COVID-19 Death Rates   [open pdf - 0B]

From the Abstract: "We correlate county-level COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] death rates with key variables using both linear regression and negative binomial mixed models, although we focus on linear regression models. We include four sets of variables: socio-economic variables, county-level health variables, modes of commuting, and climate and pollution patterns. Our analysis studies daily death rates from April 4, 2020 to May 27, 2020. We estimate correlation patterns both across states, as well as within states. For both models, we find higher shares of African American residents in the county are correlated with higher death rates. However, when we restrict ourselves to correlation patterns within a given state, the statistical significance of the correlation of death rates with the share of African Americans, while remaining positive, wanes. We find similar results for the share of elderly in the county. We find that higher amounts of commuting via public transportation, relative to telecommuting, is correlated with higher death rates."

Report Number:
NBER Working Paper No. 27391; National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 27391
2020 Christopher R. Knittel and Bora Ozaltun
Retrieved From:
National Bureau of Economic Research: https://www.nber.org/
Media Type:
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