From the Introduction: "The COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic has created a health and economic crisis without modern parallel. In a matter of months, the virus has spread to almost every country and territory in the world, killing more than 400,000 people, profoundly disrupting the lives of millions, and leading to an almost complete shutdown of large sectors of the global economy. [...] [B]eyond the immediate crisis response, COVID-19 could lead to a wider rethink of Europe's political economy. This research paper explores what such a model might look like, and what it would mean for the governance of the European Union. It is intended not as a forecast but as a thought experiment that examines the consequences of a change in Europe's political economy and the potential implications for the European project. It argues that, in the absence of consensus, current EU rules and structures could constrain the ability of member states to effect significant reform. This could lead to policy clashes between member states, as well as between member states and EU institutions, that go beyond much-discussed issues around risk-sharing in the eurozone. The danger is that the EU could now be trapped in a suboptimal status quo without a consensus about how to move forward - and could therefore be unable to make the shift towards a more state-centric political economy that citizens may now demand."
2020 Royal Institute of International Affairs
Chatham House: https://www.chathamhouse.org/