Estimating the Monetary Value of the Deaths Prevented from the UK Covid-19 Lockdown When it Was Decided Upon - and the Value of 'Flattening the Curve'   [open pdf - 0B]

From the Summary: "In tackling Covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019], the UK made a very significant decision to move from a mitigation strategy to one of suppression in mid-March 2020. As with any decision, this brings benefits and creates costs. In this paper, we seek to provide an indicative value of the benefits from the policy shift. We calculate the expected monetary value of the deaths prevented using data available when the decision was made. We first calculate the expected number of incremental deaths prevented from Covid-19 from this policy shift to be around 159,000. The UK Government has placed great weight on preventing indirect 'overflow' deaths by avoiding overwhelming the intensive care units at hospitals. We calculate that around 44,000 of the 159,000 deaths prevented come from 'flattening the curve'. Suppression policies also unintentionally serve to reduce mortality risks from other causes (such as influenza, air pollution and road traffic accidents), which will avert around another 30,000 deaths."

London School of Economics and Political Science
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