US and China: Decoupling in the Era of COVID-19   [open pdf - 0B]

From the Introduction: "While the idea of 'deglobalisation' first emerged around the time of the global financial crisis of 2008, it has been largely discounted given the complexity of global supply chains and the value that was added to global trade by the vast transportation networks and lower tariffs. Since then, for various economic and political reasons, the idea that the world is retreating from global economic integration has taken greater hold. In more recent times, it has mutated to the notion of 'decoupling'.a While the issue that has emerged is primarily in relation to the China and the United States (US), it is also now being spoken of in the context of Japan and China. The issue has two drivers: one political and the other, technological. While the notion of deglobalisation is not new, 'decoupling' has taken a salience in the presidency of Donald Trump. As such, it is a recent phenomenon on which hardly any theoretical literature can be found. [...] The paper does not aim to be an academic dissection of deglobalisation, but argues that the politics and context of deglobalisation has provided the template upon which decoupling is taking shape. It examines the options before the US and the world, weighs the pros and cons of decoupling, and outlines its implications for India."

Report Number:
ORF Occasional Paper No. 253; Observer Research Foundation Occasional Paper No. 253
2020 Observer Research Foundation
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Observer Research Foundation: https://www.orfonline.org/
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