Looking Beyond the Horizon: Modeling DHS Net Assessment   [open pdf - 20MB]

"This thesis explores the modification of the Department of Defense (DOD) framework and model of net assessment for use by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). The DOD uses net assessment to forecast strategically, often decades into the future, to determine where a net advantage or disadvantage exists over its adversaries. The information from such an analysis is then used by the DOD to determine where to best focus its resources in meeting these future adversaries. This thesis utilizes the corollary inputs, analysis, and outputs between DOD and DHS strategic models to visualize a notional framework that can be used to conduct these net assessments for DHS beyond the typical strategic plan timescale. For each DOD input and output, a comparable DHS input and output is selected. An example DHS net assessment is conducted to explore the viability of the model."