Projected Baselines of COVID-19 in the EU/EEA and the UK for Assessing the Impact of De-Escalation of Measures [open pdf - 0B]
From the Executive Summary: "Mathematical modelling of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] transmission can be used to better analyse the epidemic development in a population over time, produce projections, and inform public health decision-making on interventions. It is particularly useful for the evaluation of public health measures, notably to understand the expected impact of their implementation or release on disease transmission-related indicators. The mathematical modelling approach also allows for the quantification of the uncertainty associated with these estimations and projections. In this report, a dynamic compartmental model of COVID-19 is presented. It aims to provide a short-term 30-day forecast of the expected number of COVID-19 cases, deaths and hospitalised cases (including general hospital ward and intensive care unit) under a set of assumptions. In this first analysis, the baseline scenario corresponds to a 'status quo' in which all control measures in place on 2 May 2020 will be continued until the end of the projection period (7 June 2020). The model is based on the epidemiological data and scientific evidence available at the time of publication. Further developments are expected as new information and epidemiological data become available."
2020 European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/