Does Your State Have 14-Days of Declining COVID-19 Cases? Finding Straightforward Answers to a Surprisingly Tricky Question   [open pdf - 0B]

From the Abstract: "Governors across the country are watching the data on COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] cases to determine when to begin lifting restrictions on residents and reopening businesses, schools, and public spaces. One popular guideline for reopening is whether a state has experienced a 'sustained reduction in COVID-19 cases for 14 days.' Despite its intuitive appeal, this heuristic criterion has proven surprisingly vague, because different interpretations of what characterizes a 'sustained reduction' have yielded inconsistent guidance for policymakers. In this paper, I argue that the 'sustained reduction' criterion implies that economies should not be reopened until the prior 14 days of COVID-19 case rates are well-modeled by a monotonically decreasing trend. Based on this definition, I propose a statistical framework to help policymakers directly answer the question: 'Does your state have 14 days of declining COVID-19 cases?' The proposed framework, however, can also be applied to other public health guidelines for safe reopening. I apply the framework to data on the COVID-19 positive test rate for eight states - California, Florida, Massachusetts, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Texas - for the period from April 23 to May 6. I find that only New York satisfies the criterion of 14 days of sustained decline."

Report Number:
AEI Economics Working Paper 2020-05; American Enterprise Institute Economics Working Paper 2020-05
2020 Scott C. Ganz
Retrieved From:
American Enterprise Institute: https://www.aei.org/
Media Type:
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