ABSTRACT

Challenges of Forecasting the Spread and Mortality of COVID-19   [open pdf - 2MB]

From the Key Takeaways: "[1] While statistical models can be useful tools for tracking COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019], they are only as accurate as the input assumptions, which depend on continually changing data. [2] Widespread, randomized testing is critical to generating credible forecasts and developing a full understanding of the disease. [3] To make well-informed decisions, policymakers must use a range of forecasts and fully understand how sensitive models are to the smallest changes in assumptions."

Report Number:
Backgrounder No. 3486
Author:
Publisher:
Date:
2020-04-15
Series:
Copyright:
Heritage Foundation. Posted here with permission. Documents are for personal use only and not for commercial profit.
Retrieved From:
Heritage Foundation: https://www.heritage.org/
Format:
pdf
Media Type:
application/pdf
URL:
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