Is 'R0' < 1 in California and New York?   [open pdf - 0B]

From the Abstract: "Commonly applied metrics for tracking COVID-19 [coronavirus disease], such as deaths, hospitalizations, and confirmed cases, continue to rise even in regions that have implemented shelter-in-place orders. We argue that these trends are due to reporting lags in the data, and that a more careful analysis suggests that hospitalized cases either have already peaked or will soon peak in both New York and California, and that the number of new infections likely peaked two weeks ago, around March 22nd. A preliminary analysis suggests that California cases are dropping at 29%/day while New York cases are dropping at 8%/day, but with substantial uncertainty on both estimates. Overall, we estimate that shelter-in-places dropped the per-day growth rate in both states by around 40%/day. If these numbers are correct, California could hope to re-open in late April assuming that it implements case tracking and isolation that could handle around 100 active cases at once. In contrast, New York would not be able to re-open until June or later under the status quo. However, we find evidence that the growth rate may have already been decreasing pre-lockdown, which confounds these estimates. Data on hospital demand including time-of-admission and time-of-release could substantially reduce the uncertainty on these estimates."

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University of California Berkeley Department of Statistics: https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/
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