Potential Duration of the Aftershocks of the 2020 Southwestern Puerto Rico Earthquake [open pdf - 2MB]
From the Abstract: "Aftershocks (earthquakes clustered spatially and chronologically near the occurrence of a causative earthquake) are ongoing in southwestern Puerto Rico after a series of earthquakes, which include a magnitude 6.4 earthquake that occurred near Barrio Indios, Guayanilla, on January 7, 2020, and affected the surrounding area. This report estimates the expected duration of these aftershocks by incorporating observations of aftershocks as of January 17, 2020, into a well-established statistical model of how earthquake sequences behave. Aftershocks will persist for years to decades, although with decreasing frequency, and earthquakes will likely be felt on a daily basis for up to several months. [...] The aftershocks discussed in this report would be located in the same general area as the aftershocks that have already occurred. Our results do not imply a change in the risk of earthquakes in other parts of Puerto Rico."
Open-File Report 2020-1009
United States Geological Survey: https://usgs.gov/