From Golden Handcuffs to Pig Iron: Projecting Pension Reform's Impact on the Homeland Security Enterprise [open pdf - 2MB]
From the Thesis Abstract: "The chronic underfunding of numerous public pensions, along with historic capital-market setbacks, has created a public pension debt crisis throughout much of the nation. The depth of this crisis makes pension reform inevitable, and that reform will transform the nature of public-servant compensation in the coming decades. This thesis explores the impact pension reform will have on the effectiveness of public-sector organizations with homeland security missions. To approach this issue, this thesis draws on existing academic literature from a wide range of disciplines, including economics, public administration, organizational behavior, sociology, and social psychology. Emerging from the research is a clear recognition that pension reform will change employee behavior, organizational culture, and the market for human capital through second- and third-order effects. Exactly how such change will play out is not so clear. The thesis turns to scenario-planning techniques to synthesize the diverse literature and provide plausible responses to the question of what pension reform's impact will be within the homeland security domain. The thesis offers three different potential outcomes and recommends more robust, collaborative scenario-planning initiatives for which the thesis itself provides a useful launching pad."
Naval Postgraduate School, Dudley Knox Library: https://calhoun.nps.edu/