Flood-Frequency Comparison from 1995 to 2016 and Trends in Peak Streamflow in Arkansas, Water Years 1930-2016 [open pdf - 1MB]
From the Introduction: "Significantly increasing peak streamflow trends are of concern to local, State, and Federal agencies in Arkansas because of the corresponding increased flood risk to highway structures and surrounding communities. The risk of flooding can be characterized by annual exceedance probability flood (AEPF) predictions, which are developed from peak streamflow data and flood-frequency analysis. Transportation and drainage infrastructure, such as bridges, culverts, channels, canals, dams, and levees, generally is designed and operated under the assumption of stationarity (Milly and others, 2008), which implies that natural and anthropogenic-induced changes are too small to significantly affect statistical characteristics like annual peak streamflow (Walter and Vogel, 2010). However, substantial natural and anthropogenic changes might result in significant trends within the annual peak streamflow data."
Scientific Investigations Report 2019-5131
U.S. Geological Survey: https://www.usgs.gov/