From the Document: "This study uses statistical, geophysical, and economic models to explore the mechanisms by which climate change could affect future costs of farm safety net programs to the Federal Government. This approach first simulates the potential impact of climate change on yields of major commodities, then quantifies the implications of yield change on planting decisions and prices, which in turn affects the cost of risk management programs. This allows for analysis of three different pathways by which cost increases could occur: (1) the direct impact of climate on yield risk, (2) the indirect effect of yield risk on price risk, and (3) the impact of changed average yield, production, and price on the total value insured (liabilities). While farm safety net policies change over time, this study uses the current version of the FCIP's [Federal Crop Insurance Program] Revenue Protection program as a heuristic: a program that reduces both yield and price risk as past programs have, and as future policies may."
Economic Research Service: http://www.ers.usda.gov/