Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions [April 11, 2019]   [open pdf - 757KB]

From the Document: "Economists and financial markets closely monitor interest rates in hopes of gleaning information about the path of the economy. One measure of particular interest is the 'yield curve.' Recently, the yield curve associated with U.S. Treasuries inverted. This Insight discusses possible explanations for the inversion, including whether the inversion is signaling that the economy will enter a recession."