Assessing the Effects of Fresh Water Scarcity on the Operational Environment: A Challenge for Contemporary Operational Planners [open pdf - 900KB]
From the thesis abstract: "Global fresh water scarcity triggers conflict over fresh water and increases the frequency of attempts to control, target, or weaponize it. This monograph aims to examine the challenge of anticipating how water scarcity will affect the operational environment and operations. Due to the severity of the effects of fresh water scarcity and inadequacy of current methods to anticipate them, the Army must do more to evaluate how water scarcity will affect the operational environment and operations. Examples illustrate why this is an important issue, how the Army and civilian sector have dealt with it, and how the Army should address it. Incorporation into plans of measures to preempt or respond to the effects of water scarcity requires that planners have access to accurate assessments of those effects. Current methods for anticipating the effects of complex aspects of the operational environment are too general or linear. Analysis by those in the Operations Research/Systems Analysis functional area, using non-linear predictive tools and complex systems models, is the method recommended for the Army to anticipate the effects of water scarcity on the operational environment."
Ike Skelton Combined Arms Research Library Digital Library: http://cgsc.contentdm.oclc.org/