Unknowable 'Dao' of China: What Scenario Planning Tells US Military Planners About China Through 2030 [open pdf - 638KB]
From the thesis abstract: "The project of this monograph is to use scenario planning methodology to develop a range of possible futures for the People's Republic of China (PRC) through 2030. [...] These scenarios inform policy options that are laid out in Chapter four. The scenarios describe the future relationship between the United States and China as defined by completion instead of cooperation. Driven by this sense of competition, US military policy should seek to bolster the strength of alliances and partnerships and steadfastly meet any Chinese challenges to the rule based international system. By shoring up relationships with like-minded nations and defending the international system, the United States will be best able to maintain its position of relative advantage vis a vis the People's Republic of China."
Ike Skelton Combined Arms Research Library Digital Library: http://cgsc.contentdm.oclc.org/