Scenario Planning and Strategy in the Pentagon   [open pdf - 1MB]

"Students and practitioners of national security policy have long understood that uncertainty about the future is a central challenge of strategy. Scenario planning should be one of the Department of Defense's (DoD) most important tools for developing strategy under uncertainty. Since 2002, the DoD has employed a formalized, joint scenario planning process to support strategy and force development, but that process has proven less influential than intended for strategic decision-making. Explaining the challenges facing scenario planning and analysis in the Pentagon is the main purpose of this monograph."