Forecasting the Future of Logistics: The Formulation of an Internet of Things Capability Index [open pdf - 2MB]
From the thesis abstract: "As the third wave of information technology (IT) disruption within the logistics enterprise, the Internet of Things (IoT) holds the capability to greatly impact the United States Air Force's (USAF) understanding and preparation for future conflicts. As the pivotal decade of 2020-2030 approaches, the interconnection between information and communications technology (ICT), energy and transportation will drive logistics evolution throughout global infrastructure as IoT is further integrated. This paper considers the statistical relationship between IoT and the logistics environment and then models alternate futures within an established IoT framework through forecasts of China, Russia, North Korea, Iran and +1 Nation States using the International Futures model from Pardee University. In fulfillment of National Defense Strategy objectives, a conceptualized framework is introduced to visualize where this innovative technology will enable new efficiencies and an Index Score is formulated towards measuring competitive advantage. Ultimately, nation states and regions with higher IoT Capability Index Scores equate to strategic advantage in future operating environments marked by adaptation. Results reveal while the United States maintains competitive advantage currently, peer competitors are rapidly advancing as 2030 approaches. The strategic implications call for reemphasis on infrastructure within internal borders and strategic alliances. The conclusion introduces a 'Futurists look towards 2030', an introduction of four future research considerations within the USAF logistics enterprise, and a call for logisticians to embrace IoT and consider the leadership methodology associated."
AFIT-ENS-MS-18-J-040; Air Force Institute of Technology-ENS-Master of Science-18-J-040
Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC): http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/