Modeling Insider Threat from the Inside and Outside: Individual and Environmental Factors Examined Using Event History Analysis [open pdf - 342KB]
From the abstract: "Insider threat is an ongoing concern for the Department of Defense (DoD). Within the past 8 years, incidents of violence, such as the Fort Hood and Navy Yard shootings, as well as massive unauthorized disclosure of classified information to Wikileaks by Private Manning have caused serious harm to personnel and national security. In addition to policy and procedural changes and implementing programs for improved physical security and continuous evaluation, there have been several attempts at predictive modeling of insider threat events. For this study, analyses focused on individual factors (e.g., marital status and education) combined with environmental factors (e.g., the property crime rate in an individual's city) in relation to insider threat outcomes that may precede high-impact events. Results demonstrated that event history analysis is a viable approach to examining insider threat behavior using a combination of individual and environmental factors."
OPA-2018-065; Office of People Analytics 2018-065; PERSEREC-TR-18-14; Defense Personnel and Security Research Center Technical Report 18-14
Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC): http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/