Right-Brained Approach to Critical Infrastructure Protection Theory in Support of Strategy and Education: Deterrence, Networks, Resilience, and 'Antifragility' [open html - 155KB]
"How is the theory behind critical infrastructure/key resources (CIKR) protection evolving? Practitioners who implement strategies should be confident their strategies are based on sound theory, but theory evolves just as strategy evolves. Many theories, techniques, and models/simulations for CIKR protection have been proposed and developed over the years. This paper summarizes several of these approaches and explains how they relate to basic risk concepts explained in the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Risk Lexicon. We explain unique contributions of ways to model threat, vulnerability, and consequence, which have implications for how we assess risk. This work builds on previous work in the areas of operations research, prospect theory, network science, normal accident theory, and actuarial science. More specifically, we focus on deterrence measurement to characterize threat differently. We also explain work that models supply chains or 'transfer pathways' as networks and applies principles of reliability engineering and network science to characterize vulnerability differently. Next, we explain work to incorporate CIKR resilience and exceedence probability measurement techniques to characterize consequence differently. Finally, we conclude with implications of how CIKR risk may be treated. We anchor our exposition of these contributions with various terms from the DHS Risk Lexicon. Also, we present these ideas within a framework of three 'attack paradigms': direct attacks against a single CIKR with the intent to destroy just that target, direct attacks against a single CIKR with the intent to disrupt a system of infrastructure, and exploiting CIKR to move a weapon of mass destruction (WMD) through the global commons to its ultimate destination."
2017 by the author(s). Posted here with permission. Documents are for personal use only and not for commercial profit. See document for full rights information.
Homeland Security Affairs Journal: http://www.hsaj.org/
Homeland Security Affairs (October 2017), v.13, article 8