Scoping Future Nuclear Proliferation Risks: Leveraging Emerging Trends in Socio-Cultural Modeling and Analysis   [open pdf - 633KB]

"The key objective of this project has been to identify and then refine cutting-edge sociocultural analytic models tailored to anticipate aspiring WMD [weapons of mass destruction] actors and identify points of leverage within their national communities. In doing so, we hope to supply insights for strategic planners seeking to thwart, disrupt, or productively shift nuclear weapons activity. [...] This project was designed to combine two cutting-edge models in sociocultural analysis: 1) the Cultural Topography Method (CTops), designed by Jeannie Johnson and Matthew Berrett to isolate and assess primary socio-cultural influences impacting the decisionmaking and behavior of a key actor on a selected policy issue, and 2) the Cultural Analytic Framework (CAF), developed for the National Counterproliferation Center by the Center for the Advanced Study of Language (CASL) at the University of Maryland (Joseph Danks, Marilyn Maines, John Walker, and Anne Wright), which integrated WMD expertise and focus with the cultural mapping approach. When combined, the two methodologies present a potent analytical tool which combines best practices in the discipline for qualitative socio-cultural modeling focused on WMD issues. Applied by area experts to the difficult problem of anticipating nuclear and WMD aspirants and isolating both the operational narrative driving national decisionmaking and a selection of critical leverage points within the decisionmaking process, this project provided the opportunity for testing the utility of the models against real world targets as well as further refinement of the cultural analytic approach for use against WMD concerns and the larger scope of intelligence and policy problem sets." This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.

University of Maryland and Utah State University. Downloaded or retrieved via external web link as part of the PASCC collection.
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