Nuclear Nonproliferation: NNSA's Threat Assessment Process Could Be Improved, Report to Congressional Committees [open pdf - 1MB]
From the Highlights: "The threat posed by the proliferation of nuclear and radiological weapons remains one of the most pressing U.S. national security challenges, and these threats are evolving. Information produced by the OTH ["Over the Horizon"] initiative about future proliferation threats is intended to support long-term DNN [Defense of Nuclear Nonproliferation] planning and other DNN management decisions. The Joint Explanatory Statement Accompanying the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2014 includes a provision for GAO [Government Accountability Office] to assess NNSA's [National Nuclear Security Agency] nuclear nonproliferation programs. This report (1) describes how NNSA assessed potential proliferation threats through its OTH initiative and assesses the limitations, if any, i n the process used by the initiative and (2) examines the extent to which NNSA used information about the potential threats assessed through the OTH initiative in DNN organization and planning decisions. GAO analyzed NNSA documentation on the OTH initiative and NNSA planning documents. GAO also interviewed DOE and NNSA officials, DOE national laboratory representatives, and external subject matter experts and external validators in peer review groups involved in OTH activities. […] In conducting any future proliferation threat assessments, through the OTH initiative or another process, NNSA should better implement established methods, including literature reviews, structured interviews, and peer reviews. NNSA agreed with this recommendation and is taking action to address it."
Government Accountability Office: http://www.gao.gov/