Biodefense Knowledge Center Rapid Response [May 29, 2008]   [open pdf - 2MB]

"We conducted both a qualitative analysis of an aerosol release from the six proposed National Biological and Agricultural Defense (NBAF) sites as well as analyzed seven scenarios related to the potential impact of an accidental foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV) release in the vicinity of each of the six candidate sites. The qualitative assessment of the impact of an aerosol release from each site determined that an aerosol release from New York and Kansas would have the lowest and greatest impacts, respectively. Our epidemiological analysis indicated that for scenarios involving a single initial (index) case, outbreak durations were comparable across all proposed site locations, lasting between 44 to 51 days on average. Based on the number of animals infected, simulated outbreaks initiated in Kansas and North Carolina were the largest and outbreaks initiated in New York were the smallest. Based on the number of herds inflected, Kansas had larger outbreaks and New York and Texas had smaller outbreaks."

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