[Potential Impact of an Accidental Release of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) from Each of the Proposed Locations for the National Bio and Agro-Defense Facility (NBAF)]   [open pdf - 2MB]

In 2008 the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) requested a study on "the potential impact of an accidental release of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) from each of the proposed locations for the National Bio and Agro-Defense Facility (NBAF)." This report details Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's findings. According to the National Laboratory, "Nine scenarios were evaluated to provide an initial evaluation the potential impact of an accidental foot and mouth (FMD) virus release from each of the six potential NBAF sites. In some cases, more than one county was evaluated per location if the site was in close proximity to a county boarder. The scenarios evaluated included outbreaks beginning in Georgia (Clarke and Oglethorpe Counties), Kansas (Riley County), Mississippi (Madison County), Plum Island, New York (Suffolk, NY and New London, CT) North Carolina (Granville County), and Texas (Bexar and Medina Counties). [...] For the purposes of this work, no assumptions were made regarding the mechanism or quantity of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) involved in the accidental release modeled at each NBAF site. The virus could have escaped via an accidental aerosol release, a contaminated fomite (indirect contact), or release of an infected animal (direct contact). We assume that the FMDV escape was sufficient to infect one animal, on a randomly selected premise in the county (or neighboring county) in which the proposed NBAF site is located."

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Department of Homeland Security: http://www.dhs.gov
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