Preliminary Analysis of the President's Budget for 2012   [open pdf - 186KB]

"This report by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) presents a preliminary analysis of the proposals contained in the President's budget for fiscal year 2012 and their estimated effects on federal revenues, outlays, and budget deficits. A report presenting CBO's full analysis of the President's budget, including an assessment of the macroeconomic effects of the President's proposals, will be published in April [2011]. As a basis for analyzing the President's budget, CBO updated its baseline budget projections, which were last issued in January 2011. Unlike its estimates of the President's budget, CBO's baseline projections largely reflect the assumption that current tax and spending laws will remain unchanged. Under that assumption, CBO estimates that the deficit will total $1.40 trillion in 2011--$81 billion less than the agency estimated in January. For the following 10 years (2012 to 2021), CBO now projects a cumulative deficit of $6.7 trillion--$234 billion less than the amount in the previous baseline. CBO has not modified its economic forecast since January, so the updated baseline projections mainly reflect new information that the agency has obtained about various aspects of the federal budget since the previous projections were completed. CBO's analysis of the President's proposals is based on its own economic assumptions and estimating techniques (rather than the Administration's) and incorporates estimates prepared by the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) for tax provisions. According to CBO's projections, if all of the President's budgetary proposals were enacted, they would add $26 billion to the baseline deficit for 2011 [...]. As a result, the 2011 deficit would total $1.43 trillion, or 9.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)."

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