Regional Assessment of Tsunami Potential in the Gulf of Mexico: Report to the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program   [open pdf - 8MB]

From the Executive Summary: "The following summary is based on our observations and modeling results: (1) There is sufficient evidence to consider submarine landslides in the Gulf of Mexico as a present-day tsunami hazard, as there are clear observations of large landslides along the continental margin of the gulf; (2) Three geologic landslide provinces are de fined in the Gulf of Mexico: Northwest Gulf of Mexico, Mississippi Canyon and fan, and Florida/Campeche Margin; (3) Parameters for the maximum credible submarine landslide were determined for each of the provinces, except for the Florida/Campeche Margin where data are unavailable; […] (4) Mobility analysis suggests that constitutive parameters of the East Breaks landslide in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico are similar to the parameters for other landslides that have recently been analyzed (Palos Verdes and Currituck); (5) The largest landslides are found in the submarine canyon and fan provinces extending from present (Mississippi) and former larger rivers that emptied into the Gulf of Mexico; […] (6) Hydrodynamic modeling of potential maximum tsunamis from landslide sources was conducted for the East Breaks slide (south Texas) and for hypothetical slides along the Florida/Campeche margin. Conservative initial conditions related to tsunami generation efficiency, were used; […] (7) It is likely that seismic seiche waves resulting from the 1964 Gulf of Alaska earthquake are nearly the highest that ca n be generated owing to a predominantly continental ray path for seismic surface waves from Alaska to the Gulf Coast; (8) There are no significant earthquake sources within the Gulf of Mexico that are likely to generate tsunamis, despite recent seismic activity in the area."

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