ABSTRACT

Homeland Security Model for Assessing U.S. Domestic Threats   [open pdf - 77KB]

"What types of terrorist groups should be assessed for potential threat to domestic targets? Domestic terrorism or groups on US soil that have the intentions and capability to conduct attacks are probably the most important to assess first. But how would one go about assessing the capability and threat of such groups? Since the 9/11 attacks, domestic groups have a head start on international terrorist groups based on their proximity to potential agricultural targets and the means to engage those targets. These groups are also the most familiar with security measures in place or lack there of and could penetrate those to attack agricultural targets. Until 9/11 most groups, no matter their affiliation, were treated as criminals but not necessarily terrorists. […] Using the intent + capabilities = threat model, an assessment of various domestic terrorist groups can be made by using the tables below modeled from a recently published book on international terrorist groups' intent and capabilities. Kim Cragin and Sara A. Daly co-authored The Dynamic Terrorist Threat, An Assessment of Group Motivations and Capabilities in a Changing World , in which they outlined a means and metric to define and assess both intent and capability of international terrorist organizations. Tables 1.2 and 1.3 in this article classify intent and capability of domestic terrorist groups using a metric that is similar to Cragin and Daly's analysis of foreign terrorist groups. The metrics consist of a 1 to 5 scale for intent and capability. A group would achieve a 1 for Anti-US rhetoric and/or stated goal of destabilizing US either at local, state, or federal levels (Cragin & Daly, 2004)."

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2014?
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