Seismic Waves is a newsletter published by the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program. "California has a greater than 99 percent probability of experiencing one or more highly damaging magnitude-6.7-or-larger earthquakes during the next 30 years. The two faults most likely to generate a major earthquake during that period are the southern segment of the San Andreas Fault and the San Francisco Bay Area's Hayward Fault. These are among the findings of the first-ever statewide earthquake rupture forecast developed for California. A team of federal, state, and university scientists and engineers named the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) issued this forecast in April 2008, building upon earlier forecasts generated for selected areas of the state. The group incorporated the latest data, methods, and expert opinion to develop a state-of-the-art forecasting methodology and an unprecedented set of earthquake probabilities that are advancing earthquake safety in several important ways."
National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program: http://www.nehrp.gov/
Seismic Waves (August 2009)